On the Fate of Solaris

[Update: 5 Apr 2009: I see that the IBM and SUN talks have collapsed. I wonder who took this post most to heart ... ]

If IBM does acquire SUN, and the rumors on the street suggest that it will, what will IBM do about Solaris?

IBM will acquire a very skilled set of world-class experts in operating systems design and implementation. When joined with IBM’s existing AIX team, these folks will be by far the best such team in the world. They will also have access to IBM’s own Linux Technology Center (LTC), with its hundreds of expert Linux developers.

What will IBM do? Let’s look at some of the options.

1. Keep them working on Solaris. This is unlikely, since Solaris at best will maintain a slowly declining market share, and at worst will fade into oblivion once Linux passes it by, as it inevitably will. Some would say it already has, and the only reason Solaris still lumbers along is the base of existing Sun clients, but that is a subject for another day. It is worth noting that only a handful of outside contributors have joined Sun’s Open Solaris effort, even though the project has been around for at least two years.
2. Put some at work on AIX. This makes sense, though the AIX folks are very good at what they do, and it is hard to imagine that even one in four Sun developers would be put to work on AIX. More likely the fraction would be significantly smaller.
3. Put some to work on Linux. This is the most likely scenario. These folks can add value to Linux in two ways:
   1. Port Solaris goodies such as DTrace to Linux;
   2. Add new function to Linux
4. Put them to work on a new operating system. These seems very unlikely, though it would make sense to take some of the best and distribute them to AIX, Linux, and IBM Research.

My guess is that most will be put to work to “Make Linux Stronger,” in one way or another, as that path provides the most value add for IBM. [1]

But however deployed, most of these former Sun employees will be working in one way or another to make Linux stronger, and all that work will be available for all to share, thanks to the GPL.

Note:

1. “Make Linux Stronger” was the mission statement of the LTC when it was formed under Dan Frye’s able leadership. Dan was moved up and out a couple of years back, and the decline in the quality of LTC management has been noticeable since his departure.